STA347-Course Outline-Summer, 2012

Instructor: Philip McDunnough

Text (required): Probability via Expectation, Peter Whittle, (Springer) - 4th ed.

Marking: One 3-hour test (40%), one 3-hour final exam (60%) . Any missed "test" increases the value of the final exam by the same amount. There are no make up tests.
                Final Grade = Test+Final Exam OR Final Grade= Final Exam ( out of 100) whichever is greater.

Web site: www.utstat.toronto.edu/philip/courses/sta347/home.html

Lectures: Tuesdays, Thursdays 6-->9.

Office Hours: After class.

Assignments: None but suggested problems will be given and many solutions provided . 

Coverage

(A)- A summary of the theory of probability and expectations  (including conditional expectation) required for the study of stochastic processes.

(B)- Main limit results in probability .

(C)-The Poisson Process and variations .  Basic renewal processes.

(D)-Markov Chains including branching processes, simple random walks, limit theorems.

The material is taken from Chapters 1-->8, 9 (parts), 14 (very little), 16 (parts) of the text.


Main references:

- Introduction to Probability Models, Sheldon Ross,  (Academic Press) - , somewhat elementary for probability but excellent for Markov Chains and Poisson processes .

- An Introduction To Stochastic Modeling, H. M. Taylor, S. Karlin, (Academic Press) - right level, more stochastic process orientation

- Stochastic Processes , Sheldon Ross, (Wiley)  -  good reference for stochastic processes ( slightly more advanced than 347)

Other reference :

- Probability and Random Processes, Grimmett & Stirzaker,  (Oxford)  - a bit advanced, very comprehensive.