Lectures

It is important that you attend the lectures as we do cover material which is not in these versions.  If you miss a lecture please obtain the missing lecture from a classmate.

Lecture1

Basic foundations (sigma fields, etc...) .


Main Lecture2 - the lecture as given in class. Please read this as well as the web document Lecture2 which also includes some Branching Processes' material, which was covered for the most part in STA347.

Lecture2
More basics, Kolmogoroo O-1 Law, L2 spaces, existence of E(YlX).

Important: For next week's lecture ( on Feb 3) please read L2intro, much of which is covered in this week's lecture. We will quickly go over this and move on to renewal processes.
Please look up the definition of a norm, metric, metric space, inner product, Kronecker's lemma, Abel's theorem/lemma.



Lecture3

Renewal processes, coupling, branching processes.

L2intro  

A short review of L2, norms, inner products, etc....



Lecture4

We also covered a proof of the Elementary Renewal Theorem ( see lecture 3), Wald's Equation, stopping times. This posted lecture 4 introduces Markov Chains and sets the stage for using generating functions to obtain limiting results.

A Couple of Problems: 1. Show using n-step transistion probabilities, without appealing to generating functions, that states which communicate are either both transient or both recurrent.

2. # 1, p106 of Whittle. This is a discrete time renewal process with lifetime pgf G(z)=[1/(1-qz)]^m , where m=1, 2. Calculate ut=E( # of renewals at time t) and evaluate the limit as t becomes large. Note: Multiple renewals are possible in this case.


Lecture 5

Some review and some new material dealing with generating functions applied to Marov Chains as well as a main MC limit theorem.

Lecture 6

More on the Markov Chain limit theorem, random walks on the integers, the Ballot problem, gambler's ruin, ...

Lecture 7

Introduction to cts time processes, including the KBE and KFE equations and a non-rigorous derivation of them ( we will discuss a rigorous version later).. In addition we also went over the random walk on the integers with general jump sizes of mean 0 ( please see Lecture 6).

Please read the following for March 10.

T is finite   -this completes the coupling argument.
Uniform Integrability - useful when discussing martingales.

Lecture 8
A bit more on cts time processes, the T is finite proof and the short discusion on uniform integrability.


Lecture9 - discrete time martingales.

The test will cover the first 9 lectures. Please note that only the first 10 pages of lecture 9 are covered.

Lecture10a - we went over this in detail.

Lecture10b - we looked at some of this. We will continue withh this next week.